Shidoshi Wrote:No, it is not like counting cards in blackjack. Scrolls are independant events. It's like if they randomized the cards in blackjack before dealing each card. Though the probability of two mastery books working in a row is really 25%. The probability that the second one works, given the first one worked, is 50%.
There are similarities and there are differences. Regardless, perhaps it was a bad comparison to use. That wasn't the point of my post anyway.
Obviously it's not like cards because each scroll can change, while there's always the same cards coming out of a deck. When you know where a card is, you know it can't be in the deck. Much simpler, yes. And in that regard, baiting and counting cards can't be compared. I realize that difference.
However, lets forget counting cards. I think you misunderstand (or underestimate) the concept like I used to. I always used to laugh at people who would waste time with bait scrolls, until a good friend of mine explained and demonstrated it much better to me. He's insanely good at playing odds, and it usually rewards him. The longer he drags out a scrolling session, the better "feel" he can get for what's going to happen.
There's still probability, even with scrolling. While each scroll may have a 60% chance of working, the chances of consecutive success continues to decrease (not the scroll itself). That's what probability tells us. I realize there is no "effective" way to scroll. It's all luck, but you don't have to ride on faith alone.
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@ Below: Again, completely misunderstanding my view. I don't even bait, nor have I. But I'm not so dense as to fail to see the concept and how it can help you with the situation. I think people need to stop thinking that people who defend baiting are saying it makes scrolls work more.