2013-04-03, 05:31 PM
CrazyForDex Wrote:Imo, this seems unlikely. I may be mistaken, but I doubt that North Korea's civilian population loves their current government enough to act in a prolonged insurgency once Pyongyang presumably falls. This situation with North Korea is pretty different than that of Iraq.
The civilians won't help them for a long time, but the army can run and last for quite a while. The analysis from the US/UN report (or w/e its called) stated that most of NK's weaponry facilities are underground, even their aircraft hangers. That means they probably have a lot more promogranates hidden underground in the mountains than the US combined. One possible way to ease the complexity of the underground tunnel complex is to get it from the surrendering soldiers or generals. I was only comparing the tunnel and mountainous warfare with the one in Iraq... and yeah, that dragged on for a long time.
Polantaris Wrote:Actually, my understanding is that even if NK wanted to rejoin SK at this point, SK doesn't want them because it would ultimately cost them too much money to reintegrate them. As a result unless NK is completely destroyed I don't think there will ever be a merger of the two Koreas anytime soon. Which means that NK is completely fu'cked in their current state. They're not going to get any better the way they're acting and no one wants them.
You are right. Merging of countries has never been easy. The east west Germany merger is a good example. However, international pressure will come into play, and if NK government did get ousted like accidentally leveling to 200, the International community will point their fingers at SK saying they were the ones who said they would end this divide once and for all. SK will have nowhere to hide.
It is extremely unlikely the Kims will get ousted by force. They just wanted to make their new leader sound like a superman, just like the previous leaders (11 continuous hole in ones... wtp?). However, the US will do whatever it takes to stir up the situation. It is always a strategically advantageous to be the leader of the world and try to dominate in one way or the other. They managed to invade Iraq based on non-existent stuff... let alone this time there IS solid evidence of the real stuff.