2012-10-23, 03:10 PM
Curtiss Wrote:But at what point would the warnings be too many? I don't blame the residents for being terrified but it's pretty much a given that the seismologists encounter things like this all the time so their understanding of the situation is based more on whether this reading actually says "Oh pineapple, better start moving out!" than working on what people are feeling they should say (It's implied that they were somewhat pressured to give a definite yes or no answer when they couldn't). You also have to consider the impact on economy and human lives every time people are told to evacuate so it's really not so simple as to say one more warning is better than none as the Earth on the whole is actually very active, we just don't notice it in our daily lives.
Like Alex said, Earthquakes are highly unpredictable. Hell, earthquakes can happen in non-seismic regions or places where you would not expect to have an earthquake (see the East Coast U.S. earthquake a year or two ago). That East Coast region pretty much would never have an earthquake solely based on what we know on tectonic plates- we expect earthquakes on Subduction zones and not in the middle of plates. Essentially what this trial is asking of seismologist is to know exactly when and where earthquakes are going to happen, tell them that they are completely responsible for an Act of God, and that they should have known better. The only warning that they could have given was basically "This region has a history of large earthquakes- we predict that an earthquake will happen at X% chance within the next half a century- maybe. Sure Earthquakes appear to happen in cycles, but even that isn't accurate to the dot- by that logic, San Francisco should have been hit by a 8.9 earthquake by now. What the country should be worried about (instead of blaming the scientists and researchers) would be to use this as a teaching opportunity to educate the populace about the dangers of earthquakes. You can't exactly order an evacuation for something that you won't know will hit. It's like suing the police for not stopping a random murder. They should be accountable for not having been more careful with the assessment of buildings as it is their fault for assessing the buildings as "appropriate for a strong earthquake", but manslaughter seems to be to extreme of a punishment for what basically amounts to doing their job. A terrible job, but a job nonetheless.
The reason other countries are more prepared is because their earthquakes happen much more frequently- Japan for example. Because they have had many earthquakes in recent years, their building code is up to the geological standard. If anything, the Italians should now rebuild their buildings to standard. And also get some better fricken scientists that will do their jobs correctly.