2012-10-23, 02:01 PM
Curtiss Wrote:But at what point would the warnings be too many? I don't blame the residents for being terrified but it's pretty much a given that the seismologists encounter things like this all the time so their understanding of the situation is based more on whether this reading actually says "Oh pineapple, better start moving out!" than working on what people are feeling they should say (It's implied that they were somewhat pressured to give a definite yes or no answer when they couldn't). You also have to consider the impact on economy and human lives every time people are told to evacuate so it's really not so simple as to say one more warning is better than none as the Earth on the whole is actually very active, we just don't notice it in our daily lives.
This is not about warnings. Earthquakes are not like hurricanes or volcanoes that you can warn and propose evacuations. It's about educating/preparing the populace to deal with the event whenever it comes and helping the government prepare for such events to ~prevent~ as many causalities as possible (this is where tsunami areas, building codes and the reinforcement/demolition of weak/dangerous structures etc comes into play). The potential danger is part of the area in which you live in, and as grim as it may sound, the populace should learn to live with that potential danger looming over their head. The government and related agencies haves the duty of informing/educating that populace, so constant exposure to information regarding to a possible major seismic event is never "too much".
And the scientist haves the duty to provide facts to the populace (as annoyingly probabilistic/uncertain those answers may be). If he breaks and misinforms the public in an attempt to "appease the populace" then part of the blame should fall to him. Though of course, I'm not with charging them with manslaughter. Additionally, that this city was so unprepared to face such an event couldn't possibly be the fault of these scientists alone.
Sadly though, it seems that this whole thing is about scientists being played and used as scapegoats. The tittle should be changed to "seismologists used as scapegoats for the sake of irresponsible government officials". No wonder meteorologists are such alarmists. Poor them.
Edit: Also, clusters are not precursors to major seismic events. The opposite; that a lot of minor quakes dissipate energy reducing the chances of major earthquakes occurring is not true either. In short, there's no way to predict major earthquakes period. Seismology is a branch of science that is pretty much just starting, it's on a research period if you will. So a seismologist can't go "Oh pineapple, better start moving out!" because their readings don't tell them anything of the sort. Sadly.