Chaos Scrolls

I've caught my attention for chaos scrolls.

From what I've understood, they have the possibility to increase and/or decrease any given status, is this correct?

Is the probability of e.g. incrementing weapon defense by 5 lowered/cancelled if another status, say magic defense, has been incremented by 5?

If that sounded too cryptic: On a horntail pendant, would it be possible to increment every status by 5 with a chaos scroll? Would it be possible to decrement every status by 5 as well? Is there any limit somewhere?

Is there any limit on how many statuses that may be affected? Is there a constant amount (i.e. there's always 4 or 3 status that may increment/decrement. If less, all statuses increment/decrement.) of statuses that are affected?

Does it seem like there's a higher chance of having statuses decreased rather than increased?

What are the different status increases and/or decreases?


Assuming the following status increases, is this a viable probability-ratio? (Just random thoughts.)

-5	-3	-1	0	1	3	5
20%	20%	20%	10%	10%	10%	10%

As a little "too lazy, didn't read":
Tell everything you know about how a chaos scroll works.

Thank you!

Noah

Chaos scrolls can fail, and the number of change can also change by 2 and 4.

40% fail
60% success
v
30% increase
30% decrease
v
5.45(repeating)% no effect, and the possibility of being +/- 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.

So now you have

(approximate numbers)
40% - fail
5.45% - +5
5.45% - +4
5.45% - +3
5.45% - +2
5.45% - +1
5.45% - 0
5.45% - -1
5.45% - -2
5.45% - -3
5.45% - -4
5.45% - -5

So chaos' are kinda like 30% dark scrolls. You have a 30% chance of getting a result you want (getting a + in stat). Some food for thought~

If that sounded too cryptic: On a horntail pendant, would it be possible to increment every status by 5 with a chaos scroll? Would it be possible to decrement every status by 5 as well? Is there any limit somewhere?

http://www.southperry.net/forums/showthread.php?t=5188

Chaos scrolls can fail, and the number of change can also change by 2 and 4.

40% fail
60% success
v
30% increase
30% decrease
v
5.45(repeating)% no effect, and the possibility of being +/- 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.

So now you have

(approximate numbers)
40% - fail
5.45% - +5
5.45% - +4
5.45% - +3
5.45% - +2
5.45% - +1
5.45% - 0
5.45% - -1
5.45% - -2
5.45% - -3
5.45% - -4
5.45% - -5

So chaos' are kinda like 30% dark scrolls. You have a 30% chance of getting a result you want (getting a + in stat). Some food for thought~

Okay. There's an uniform distribution of the stat changes. (All have same probabilities)

I apologize if I sound like I doesn't trust you, but where did you get this information? I just want to be sure this actually happens.
That is, having the same chance of incrementing a stat by 5 and that nothing happens with a status. For some reason, I assume that there's a higher chance of having nothing to happen with a stat, than incrementing the stat by 5. At least, that's how it work with weapons dropped by monsters.

http://www.southperry.net/forums/showthread.php?t=5188

Okay, so all stats are affected. I saw 2 +2 at same scroll as well, so we may assume they're independent events. (And 2 +0 at the first scroll.)


Oh, and that leaves me with another question: Is there a chance of having the chaos scroll not affecting anything at all? That is, the scroll works, but gives the same as a failing scroll.

Noah

This thread http://www.southperry.net/forums/showthr...aos+scroll has the most comprehensive empirical study of chaos scrolls that I know of...

I wouldn't assume they're equally likely, it definitely seems to favour the -2 to +2 range (specifically +1 to +2).

Oh, and that leaves me with another question: Is there a chance of having the chaos scroll not affecting anything at all? That is, the scroll works, but gives the same as a failing scroll.

Yes. Back during the leaf event with the maple syrups...
(if you didn't know what that was, the leaf was a face accessory that gives +5 of a certain stat (str, dex, int, luk) clean and the maple syrups were 100% chaos scrolls that worked exclusively on the leaves)
There were many instances when you could use the maple syrup and get the same stats out.

That being said, during the event, out of curiosity, I bought 70% hp scrolls and scrolled my leaves with them before hitting them with maple syrups. One of the leaves ended up the same hp AND same int after using a syrup. (That is, 15hp and 5int.) That only happened once though so it is a rare event. I'm pretty sure you'll ALMOST never get such a result with an item that has 7 different stats such as a HTP.

I wouldn't assume they're equally likely, it definitely seems to favour the -2 to +2 range (specifically +1 to +2).

They're definitely not. I'd say it's a bell curve from 0~5, with 2 being the top of the curve. (That is, 2 occurs most likely, then 1 or 3, then 4 or 0, then 5 being the lowest).

I'm not convinced that higher stat distributions are just as likely.

Noah, try playing around with the Branch Noses and 100% scroll drops for it. There's plenty of experimentation this event xD

HOWEVER! If the Branch Nose loses its stat, scrolling it with those 100% "chaos" scrolls will do NOTHING.

I'm not convinced that higher stat distributions are just as likely.

Noah, try playing around with the Branch Noses and 100% scroll drops for it. There's plenty of experimentation this event xD

HOWEVER! If the Branch Nose loses its stat, scrolling it with those 100% "chaos" scrolls will do NOTHING.

Yeah. For me, it seems like there's a very low chance of having +/- 4/5 in boost. But that may be exactly what it is, probability.

I'm just hoping that I'll be able to assume a certain probability for each of these events by using the law of great numbers and some brain. Though that requires a lot of tests. And tests... hmm, any of you know when this event's stopping? I forgot to check when I did the quest, and I don't bother to go back online, heh. If anyone bothers though, would they mind remembering their stats as well?

Yeah, having the branch nose lose all its stats wouldn't work too well.

Noah

Branch Nose quest is repeatable every hour. As for when they stop becoming available, I dunno xD

DEX Nose --> 4, 4, 4, 0
DEX Nose --> 4, 1, 0
STR Nose --> 4, 1, 0

Anyone wanna guess that my next nose bombs on the first slot? >_>

Also, whether the first Nose went down by 4 or 5 is anyone's guess =/

Yeah. For me, it seems like there's a very low chance of having +/- 4/5 in boost. But that may be exactly what it is, probability.

That's because it is a lower probability. As I said, any changes in 2 should hold the highest probability, any thing higher or lower than 2 have lower probabilities.

I'm just hoping that I'll be able to assume a certain probability for each of these events by using the law of great numbers and some brain. Though that requires a lot of tests. And tests... hmm, any of you know when this event's stopping? I forgot to check when I did the quest, and I don't bother to go back online, heh. If anyone bothers though, would they mind remembering their stats as well?

If you really want to test, scroll HP onto your branch nose before you begin using the tree saps on them.

Yeah, having the branch nose lose all its stats wouldn't work too well.

Scroll HP onto it and try again.

Noah, everything is set to expire on April 8th, IIRC. I assume that is when the event ends as well.