Early cop reveal is pretty....not good. You saw what happened? Once the doctor died, the detective was dead. Nothing we could do about it. If detective kept silent until at least a confirmed mafia pops up, we would still have a detective. Revealing yourself as detective gives the town no information whatsoever besides 1 or 2 confirmed innocents, which gives 3 targets for the mafia to kill.
It's just basic probability that it's always good for the town and the mafia to kill whenever they can (except if you're perhaps a vigilante). Proof is somewhere out there on the internet.
Corn Wrote:It's just basic probability that it's always good for the town and the mafia to kill whenever they can (except if you're perhaps a vigilante). Proof is somewhere out there on the internet.
What type of probability are we working with here? Did you expect there to be 6 mafia? I was new to the game so maybe a 25% chance to kill a mafioso vs. 75% chance to kill a villager is par for the course and an acceptable risk/good for the town. I would even accept that premise in a large game with 30 or so people using the 1:3 odds, but in such a small game where you were almost as likely to kill the doctor or detective at random as you were mafia, I just can't fathom that.
Chilly Wrote:What type of probability are we working with here? Did you expect there to be 6 mafia? I was new to the game so maybe a 25% chance to kill a mafioso vs. 75% chance to kill a villager is par for the course and an acceptable risk/good for the town. I would even accept that premise in a large game with 30 or so people using the 1:3 odds, but in such a small game where you were almost as likely to kill the doctor or detective at random as you were mafia, I just can't fathom that.
You're not likely to kill the doctor or detective, because hopefully by that point they'd have roleclaimed.
My point exactly, it forces them to claim and that doesn't help town. It's worse if it outs doctor because even if he doesn't get lynched he's most likely dead next day.
Corn Wrote:You're not likely to kill the doctor or detective, because hopefully by that point they'd have roleclaimed.
They would have roleclaimed at the beginning? Weren't you chastising Words about revealing too soon? I only mention the beginning because that's when the random lynching was initiated, if semi-random lynching is acceptable once the doctor or detective is revealed why random lynch when probability says one is nearly as likely to kill them as a mafioso? I understand both your points (I think):
Important characters ought not reveal themselves too early.
Random lynching is advantageous when you know the detective and/or doctor (thus semi-random).
When probability dictates, it is also acceptable to random lynch.
But to me, it doesn't seem either of those were in effect.
For bullets one and two: We didn't know either when random lynching started and we shouldn't have known. At first random lynch we there was a 17% chance to kill either v. 25% chance to kill mafia. Since Words revealed himself at second lynch it was probably favorable to random lynch 9% v. 27% if we disregard vanilla townies.
For bullet three: If we do regard vanilla townies + special townies, unless people were acting suspiciously, probability would dictate that random lynching was still not appropriate until around a third murder.
Of course, it doesn't help that the doctor was from foreign lands with mannerisms that the locals didn't exactly understand (read: acted extremely suspicious).
In epicmafia randomlynch was only acceptable when no one has a clue and it's lylo. And to me that's the only reasonable time to do so.
With the cop out and he's investigations, he can lead a better randomlynch.
At least there wasn't a fool...
Just based on that post. If Words is gone, it will make Chilly and Corn look even more suspicious. Which will eventually get them lynched, unless they become a problem. In the case that they survive a bit too much, we could always kill one of them.
I vote for murdering Words.
Night II
Tay Wrote:
Loose Wrote:
Tay Wrote:
Loose Wrote:What's the plan for tonight?
I want VerKol dead, but I think we should off Zelkova. It's implied that he isn't a regular citizen, he isn't a mafia, so he's gotta be a doctor maybe
VerrKol might be the best idea, gotta check out what VerrKol has posted and who has voted against VerrKol. I think we might be able to get Zelkova lynched next.
Alrighty then, let's see how the civilians react to the death of VerrKol and then from there attempt the lynching of Zelkova?
Night III
Tay Wrote:
Loose Wrote:
MetaSeraphim Wrote:
Tay Wrote:
MetaSeraphim Wrote:So, we are killing Words, right? Or do we want to make it interesting and kill off someone else?
I think he needs to swim with the rest, he's too talkative and has a bit too much of experience. I haven't any clue of who the detective is, it might be him, but overall I don't have a good guess. So far we're doing pretty good though!
He did roleclaim detective, but that doesn't mean anything.
Also, with a kill tonight and a non-mafian lynch tomorrow I am pretty sure we auto-win since we'll out number the townies 3 to 2.
We should kill off Words and get ChaoticCJ lynched.
And I knew we could get Zelkova lynched, heheh.
Alrighty, so we agree to kill Words? I suggest one of us not vote to lynch CJ, to throw off that we could be working together. Then again it's possibly the last round so it might not matter. Anywho, Meta it isith your turn to inform the governor of our wrong doing.
Chilly Wrote:They would have roleclaimed at the beginning? Weren't you chastising Words about revealing too soon? I only mention the beginning because that's when the random lynching was initiated, if semi-random lynching is acceptable once the doctor or detective is revealed why random lynch when probability says one is nearly as likely to kill them as a mafioso? I understand both your points (I think):
Important characters ought not reveal themselves too early.
Random lynching is advantageous when you know the detective and/or doctor (thus semi-random).
When probability dictates, it is also acceptable to random lynch.
But to me, it doesn't seem either of those were in effect.
For bullets one and two: We didn't know either when random lynching started and we shouldn't have known. At first random lynch we there was a 17% chance to kill either v. 25% chance to kill mafia. Since Words revealed himself at second lynch it was probably favorable to random lynch 9% v. 27% if we disregard vanilla townies.
For bullet three: If we do regard vanilla townies + special townies, unless people were acting suspiciously, probability would dictate that random lynching was still not appropriate until around a third murder.
Of course, it doesn't help that the doctor was from foreign lands with mannerisms that the locals didn't exactly understand (read: acted extremely suspicious).
It's unlikely you random lynch the doctor or detective day 0. You only reveal if you're clearly going to get lynched or you have good information.
So what?
It relates more to what we have here than real life playing.
Not to mention that I was targeted once because I seem to know a bit about the game, and I learnt everything there, so it's worth mentioning, especially when asked.
Corn is missing the MAJOR actual dvantage to a random lynch day 1 - it gets people talking, voting, countervoting, defending themselves, finger pointing, etc. It gets pomegranate going. In a lot of games having no votes simply results in a random lynch anyway (depending on the host). At any rate, the random lynch/voting gives the town a starting point, a whole day's worth of information they'd otherwise be throwing away by waiting for nightfall/something to happen.
Words Wrote:Corn
Verrkol
Tay
You guys missed a lot of stuff or something.
Corn asked like 3 times who I investigated and like 2 more times why I claimed.
I'm either having cornitis again or you never replied specifically who you investigated or you edited it in .
.