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Discussion: Classical Mafia - Swerve - 2011-07-20
Two escaped convicts flee into the town of Holcomb. The rural town rarely has a problem with criminals and relies on law enforcement from the neighboring city to deal with public unrest. The city sends in one investigator to find and arrest the two escaped convicts. Unfortunately both convicts have blended in with the local populace. Despite this cohabitance, their criminal tendencies have not abated. Deaths ensue as the two convicts murder one villager every night. The town doctor growing increasingly concerned with the amount of deaths has an interest in lending aid to the investigator when he arrives in town. The following stage is set: 3 villagers, 2 mafia, 1 doctor, and 1 cop.
The game begins at night. Players are not aware of which role other players are and therefore are only aware of their own. During the night the mafia talk with each other while the town (3 villagers, 1 doctor, 1 cop) is sleeping. Mafia choose who to kill. The doctor chooses whose life to save (if it coincides with the mafia kill target then the player lives) and the cop chooses who to investigate (pick a player and the report will indicate whether said player is town or mafia). When night ends, the day starts and town + mafia have a discussion in order to weed out the two mafia amongst them. Every member has one vote which they can place in order to choose who gets lynched that day. Once the majority of votes are decided (i.e. 4 if 6 or 7 people are alive), the person elected gets the noose. The town must rely on this majority mechanic to weed out the minority menacing their existence. What would you do as town, doc, mafia, or cop? What do you think is optimal?
Discussion: Classical Mafia - octopusprime - 2011-07-20
If village, d1 vote for an inactive.
If Mafia N1 if villiage killed an inactive and i (we) are not that active, kill and inactive and ideally vote for an active next day.
If cop, N1 guess. It would be an educated guess but still a guess. Actions after depend on the results of the guess.
Doctor N1 usually save myself or guess. Same as the doctor in a lot of ways.
It's really a lot of variables. A lot of things change depending on what happens and who dies and by what means. I guess optimally no one is inactive and D/N1 is all guesswork for everyone and D2 Depends on the results of d/n 1.
Discussion: Classical Mafia - Dual - 2011-07-20
[COLOR="green"]The only strategy is to have the cop reveal himself, so the doctor can protect him.
Due to the fact that the mafia needs to correctly guess 1/4 in order to kill the doctor, thus allowing them to kill the cop the next night, the mafia's hands will be tied. The cop then check everyone in turn, and will reveal the information to the group every day, telling only innocent or guilty as his verdict. The town must trust everything the cop says, and therefore will create known innocents, forcing the mafia to cover their tracks by eliminating them.
In order for true perfection, no lynches may occur, as to remove random factors, until the doctor is dead. With the death of the doctor, the cop will have one more day of knowledge than the mafia was allowed to stop, allowing him to have either a guilty verdict, which guarantees a lynch; or an innocent verdict, allowing a tie between the cop and the one investigated, also forcing a lynch in favor of the town, as voting against the cop is suicide to the mafia.
If the game comes down to 5 players, with the doctor not dead, the town must vote with the cop's decision. If he hasn't gotten a guilty verdict, then he has 1 person on his side. He then votes, and the other person who is town should vote with him, as well as the other mafioso. There is a 1/3th chance where the mafia can win here by having the cop pick the wrong target, but it's a slim chance that the game will even get to this point.
Of course, it all comes down to luck, but most of the time, luck won't shine in favor of the mafia, since they have to get a 1/4 chance while the cop only needs to locate 2/6, causing him to have a higher chance of victory. It also comes down to how smart the mafia and the doctor are, seeing if they can out-think each other on if the cop is actually being protected, because a wise doctor might realize that the mafia would expect a cop to be protected, allowing him to protect otherwise.[/COLOR]
Discussion: Classical Mafia - octopusprime - 2011-07-20
DualReaver Wrote:[COLOR="green"]The only strategy is to have the cop reveal himself, so the doctor can protect him.
Due to the fact that the mafia needs to correctly guess 1/4 in order to kill the doctor, thus allowing them to kill the cop the next night, the mafia's hands will be tied. The cop then check everyone in turn, and will reveal the information to the group every day, telling only innocent or guilty as his verdict. The town must trust everything the cop says, and therefore will create known innocents, forcing the mafia to cover their tracks by eliminating them.
In order for true perfection, no lynches may occur, as to remove random factors, until the doctor is dead. With the death of the doctor, the cop will have one more day of knowledge than the mafia was allowed to stop, allowing him to have either a guilty verdict, which guarantees a lynch; or an innocent verdict, allowing a tie between the cop and the one investigated, also forcing a lynch in favor of the town, as voting against the cop is suicide to the mafia.
If the game comes down to 5 players, with the doctor not dead, the town must vote with the cop's decision. If he hasn't gotten a guilty verdict, then he has 1 person on his side. He then votes, and the other person who is town should vote with him, as well as the other mafioso. There is a 1/3th chance where the mafia can win here by having the cop pick the wrong target, but it's a slim chance that the game will even get to this point.
Of course, it all comes down to luck, but most of the time, luck won't shine in favor of the mafia, since they have to get a 1/4 chance while the cop only needs to locate 2/6, causing him to have a higher chance of victory. It also comes down to how smart the mafia and the doctor are, seeing if they can out-think each other on if the cop is actually being protected, because a wise doctor might realize that the mafia would expect a cop to be protected, allowing him to protect otherwise.[/COLOR]
If roleclaiming is considered an optimal situation. The mafia could go for a Sac and also roleclaim on a gambit to kill the cop.
Pesonally i'm not a fan roleclaims.
Discussion: Classical Mafia - Dual - 2011-07-20
octopusprime Wrote:If roleclaiming is considered an optimal situation. The mafia could go for a Sac and also roleclaim on a gambit to kill the cop.
Pesonally i'm not a fan roleclaims.
[COLOR="green"]If the mafia sacrifice one of them to get the cop lynched, it would result in a possible chance to backfire and get themselves lynched as well. It's an extremely risky move that could result in 3 total town deaths if it succeeds, but could leave the other mafioso at a 5/1 game if if fails. Even if they succeed, the doctor can screw up their results on a nightkill, on both nights after the two cops get lynched. Even if they land both hits, you end up with a game of 2 on 1, which is the best chance the mafia has, but only if the town screws up and one townie votes for the wrong person first.
Roleclaiming is always the optimal choice, since it's the only way to remove the one factor that the mafia has against the town: information.[/COLOR]
Discussion: Classical Mafia - Swerve - 2011-07-20
Clarification: This game has night start. So Night One then Day One, Night Two then Day Two. So on and so forth.
octopusprime Wrote:If village, d1 vote for an inactive.
If mafia manage to pull off a kill on opening night, then there is no room for a mislynch. 2 mafia / 6 players. Town mislynches on another villager. 2 mafia / 5 players. Mafia have a high chance of performing a successful killing the following night. 2 mafia / 4 players. Mafia win.
octopusprime Wrote:If Mafia N1 if villiage killed an inactive and i (we) are not that active, kill and inactive and ideally vote for an active next day.
Voting for actives are actually difficult since they participate a lot and will proceed to defend themselves. However targeting an active for a fos makes you appear town if you present rational reasons for why someone might think they are scum, hopefully something more substantial than wifom. Also assuming this is a game with random players, the N1 kill will be more or less random. Assuming you know the other players in this game (meta) then you could supposedly choose the kill like this.
octopus Wrote:If cop, N1 guess. It would be an educated guess but still a guess. Actions after depend on the results of the guess.
Again the game starts off N1. So there are no reads to form. Night 1 comes first, then Day 1 will come where such actions can be discussed.
octopus Wrote:Doctor N1 usually save myself or guess. Same as the doctor in a lot of ways.
Lmao. You can't save yourself as the doctor unfortunately.
octopus Wrote:It's really a lot of variables. A lot of things change depending on what happens and who dies and by what means. I guess optimally no one is inactive and D/N1 is all guesswork for everyone and D2 Depends on the results of d/n 1.
N1 killing, saving, and investigating is random. However day strategy is not that random.
DualReaver Wrote:The only strategy is to have the cop reveal himself, so the doctor can protect him.
Sure. This is the first thought that comes to mind and what is often done if cop and doc haven't been night killed the first night.
DualReaver Wrote:Due to the fact that the mafia needs to correctly guess 1/4 in order to kill the doctor, thus allowing them to kill the cop the next night, the mafia's hands will be tied. The cop then check everyone in turn, and will reveal the information to the group every day, telling only innocent or guilty as his verdict. The town must trust everything the cop says, and therefore will create known innocents, forcing the mafia to cover their tracks by eliminating them.
Rational and the reason why mass claiming often occurs D1. What happens if mafia counterclaims cop on D1 with a fake report and the death of a villager? Would you lynch or no lynch?
Dual Wrote:Of course, it all comes down to luck, but most of the time, luck won't shine in favor of the mafia, since they have to get a 1/4 chance while the cop only needs to locate 2/6, causing him to have a higher chance of victory. It also comes down to how smart the mafia and the doctor are, seeing if they can out-think each other on if the cop is actually being protected, because a wise doctor might realize that the mafia would expect a cop to be protected, allowing him to protect otherwise.
What do you think mafia can do then to increase their chances of winning?
=================================
Consider this: You are scum and you kill a villager night one. It sucks. The cop will likely claim and the doctor will be on him throughout the rest of the rounds. However in this setup, town doesn't have the chance to choose wrong if you manage to pull off both night kills with no doc save (highly probable that both kills are successful). To prevent the doc from being on the cop, you decide to cc the cop with a fake report. Town is stuck on D1 with two cop claims and no chance for mistakes. Their impulse is to no lynch and wait for each cop to gather more reports. The doctor will be on a "random" townie as mafia saccing the cop would result in a guaranteed mafia. You plan ahead to have your partner cast doubt on you being fake to throw distance between you two. If the cop does have a guilty on your partner, then you have your partner claim doctor in order to out the real doctor and kill him as soon as possible. Even though probability states that cc'ing each PR results in a 50/50 chance of losing, it is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 chance and is actually better than getting stuck with the others blues: 2/4 which we won't reduce because saturation adds difficulty, unfortunately this saturation is reduced by the ability of the Cop PR. The chances are actually more like 2/5 as the doctor will want to stay in hiding for the earlier part of the game. However fact still remains that this is more of a game of psychology and bussing/fossing your own partner will result in gaining town's trust leading them to make a slip based on how good a job you do. As far as scum mechanics go, it is wise for one scum to always counter claim the cop. Picking to fake an innocent report on someone gullible may make them more pliable to vote in your favor. It is also possible to get a guilty on your own partner and bus Day 1 if the Night 1 kill is successful. As stated before, town only needs to make one mislynch when coupled with successful kills. Ideas on villager play coming later.
Discussion: Classical Mafia - Dual - 2011-07-20
Game is biased towards mafia if you have a night start. Mafia has 2/5 chance of killing a power role compared to town's 2/6 chance of finding a mafioso with the cop. Not to mention, killing the cop N0 will instantly cause the town to be in a situation where they pretty much can't win, since they are at mylo no matter who survives the first night, and no information from the cop basically makes it a blind guessing game.
Discussion: Classical Mafia - Swerve - 2011-07-20
DualReaver Wrote:Game is biased towards mafia if you have a night start. Mafia has 2/5 chance of killing a power role compared to town's 2/6 chance of finding a mafioso with the cop. Not to mention, killing the cop N0 will instantly cause the town to be in a situation where they pretty much can't win, since they are at mylo no matter who survives the first night, and no information from the cop basically makes it a blind guessing game.
The game is more fun with a dead cop than a live one assuming your town isn't full of dippomegranates and there is a collective interest in still playing / sourcing out mafia. It is sad that you believe the game becomes a "guessing game" as it is my impression that a villager v. mafia game with no PRs is far closer to the root of the game then one with the reliance of PRs.
Discussion: Classical Mafia - Shidoshi - 2011-07-21
Swerve Wrote:The game is more fun with a dead cop than a live one assuming your town isn't full of dippomegranates and there is a collective interest in still playing / sourcing out mafia. It is sad that you believe the game becomes a "guessing game" as it is my impression that a villager v. mafia game with no PRs is far closer to the root of the game then one with the reliance of PRs.
In the SP meta it's lame to be without a PR, with a good amount of players staying inactive throughout the game there is not much discussion going on. An if you couple that to the the current meta of "who normally plays active gets killed fast", it's really saddening how quiet the game becomes.
Anyway, I don't have that much knowledge on serious mafia games =P
Discussion: Classical Mafia - Dual - 2011-07-21
Swerve Wrote:The game is more fun with a dead cop than a live one assuming your town isn't full of dippomegranates and there is a collective interest in still playing / sourcing out mafia. It is sad that you believe the game becomes a "guessing game" as it is my impression that a villager v. mafia game with no PRs is far closer to the root of the game then one with the reliance of PRs.
[COLOR="green"]I love villager vs mafia as much as the next guy, but the whole point for discussion and finding things implies you have time to. The village literally can't make one mistake in your setup, and with not a single day's info to go on, they're most likely not going to lynch the mafia straight off. It would take an incredibly bad mafia to somehow expose their player day one.
It's not having no power roles that makes it a guessing game, it's having NO information at all. Almost never do you see a scum lynch day one.[/COLOR]
Discussion: Classical Mafia - octopusprime - 2011-07-21
Shidoshi Wrote:In the SP meta it's lame to be without a PR, with a good amount of players staying inactive throughout the game there is not much discussion going on. An if you couple that to the the current meta of "who normally plays active gets killed fast", it's really saddening how quiet the game becomes.
Anyway, I don't have that much knowledge on serious mafia games =P
Like i said, variables. Not just on those that happen but within the entire state of the game itself. Personally i find the most strategy in the IRL variant.