Best method for scrolling wgs?

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Best method for scrolling wgs? - Cydonia - 2011-02-04

First of all... lets say you have like 500m spare mesos, is this generally enough to turn a profit for scrolling wgs? Or how much mesos is enough to make a profit?

Alright now lets say it is, and if you're looking to make some mesos without merching all day what is the best method to use, statistically? From what I gather this is the price of GFA scrolls (give or take) on Khaini, not sure in other servers but just substitute prices.

So far this is the plan I came up with, do you do anything different?

60% GFA = 7m

7*5 = 35m

first fail = throw away = loss of 7m

first pass, second fail, sell for 2m(?)** = loss of 12m

first pass, second pass, third fail, sell for 4m(?)** = loss of 17m

first pass, second pass, third pass, fourth fail, scroll again (if 6 atk, sell for 10m(?)** = loss of 25m. if 8 atk sell for 40m = profit of 5m)

all pass, sell wg for 130-140m = profit of 95m - 105m

** = I don't know prices of low atk wgs with failed slots, do people still buy them for more or less?

Best method for scrolling wgs? - Gregory - 2011-02-04

Best method would be to open your equipment inventory, and drag the scroll onto a pair of work gloves

Best method for scrolling wgs? - Shidoshi - 2011-02-04

To find out the expectancy of your scrolling business simply do this: multiply each of your case's result by the probability of them happening, then add all them up and you have your expected average income.

Also, I'd recommend using 70% for the 1st and maybe 2nd slot as you may be throwing away any that fail those slots so the higher chance of passing makes it better (and the chance to break doesn't bother you). Also, 70% scrolls are generally cheaper.

Best method for scrolling wgs? - Cydonia - 2011-02-04

Shidoshi Wrote:To find out the expectancy of your scrolling business simply do this: multiply each of your case's result by the probability of them happening, then add all them up and you have your expected average income.

Also, I'd recommend using 70% for the 1st and maybe 2nd slot as you may be throwing away any that fail those slots so the higher chance of passing makes it better (and the chance to break doesn't bother you). Also, 70% scrolls are generally cheaper.

Thanks for the tip, using 70% on the first and second seems very logical.

Best method for scrolling wgs? - Shidoshi - 2011-02-04

I think WGs start selling at at least 4-6 atk, most likely 6 (which is the most probable event of scrolling with 60% scrolls). Lower than that and they start going too cheap, I'm no expert though (specially being from a different server), I strongly recommend searching the market (and the MTS) to look up prices.

Best method for scrolling wgs? - MissingLink - 2011-02-04

Shidoshi Wrote:To find out the expectancy of your scrolling business simply do this: multiply each of your case's result by the probability of them happening, then add all them up and you have your expected average income.

Yeah, like so:
first fail = throw away = loss of 7m
0.40 chance *( -7) = -2.80m

first pass, second fail, sell for 2m(?)** = loss of 12m
0.60*0.40*(-12) = 0.24 * (-12) = -2.88m

first pass, second pass, third fail, sell for 4m(?)** = loss of 17m
0.60*0.60*0.40*-17 = 0.144 * (-17) = -2.45

first pass, second pass, third pass, fourth fail, scroll again (if 6 atk, sell for 10m(?)** = loss of 25m. if 8 atk sell for 40m = profit of 5m)
0.60*0.60*0.60*0.40*0.40*(-25) = 0.03456 * (-25) = -.86m
0.60*0.60*0.60*0.40*0.60*5 = 0.0518 * 5 = +.26m

0.60*0.60*0.60*0.60*0.40*5 = 0.0518 * 5 = +.26m

all pass, sell wg for 130-140m = profit of 95m - 105m

0.60*0.60*0.60*0.60*0.60*135 = 0.0776*100 = +7.76

Check that all probabilities add to 1: (.40+.24+.144+.03456+.0518+.0518+.0776) = .99976

Typical result: (-2.80-2.88-2.45-0.86+0.26+0.26+7.76) = -0.7m average LOSS assuming given prices

Also aren't the scrolls usually 8m or more? Doesn't look like an easy get rich plan to me.

Best method for scrolling wgs? - Shidoshi - 2011-02-04

MissingLink Wrote:Typical result: (-2.80-2.88-2.45-0.86+0.26+0.26+7.76) = -0.7m average LOSS assuming given prices

Also aren't the scrolls usually 8m or more? Doesn't look like an easy get rich plan to me.

That's actually the average gain, you gain -0,7m each glove on average.
This method can probably generate more income by using 70% scrolls on the first two slots (and add more complexity).

Calculated using two 70% on the two first slots. Assumed they cost the same as 60% scrolls.
[Image: BMYKc.png]

You can see that you'll have about 2m profit per glove, on average.

If you give more accurate figures on prices I can give better results, of course.

Best method for scrolling wgs? - Cydonia - 2011-02-04

Shidoshi Wrote:That's actually the average gain, you gain -0,7m each glove on average.
This method can probably generate more income by using 70% scrolls on the first two slots (and add more complexity).

Calculated using two 70% on the two first slots. Assumed they cost the same as 60% scrolls.

You can see that you'll have about 2m profit per glove, on average.

If you give more accurate figures on prices I can give better results, of course.

Thank you so much. That info is really helpful.

The prices are from a general estimate of what I have been seeing lately in the FM. But like always, GFA changes constantly. I would say they fluctuate between 7-9m. And also, I haven't really seen 70% cheaper than 60%, but then again I haven't seen 70% as much as 60%.

Also when looking through the FM 2/4 atk wgs with 1 fail slot may be worth a little more then my estimate, so that can only help the end result, right?

But it seems this really is only profittable if you do it alot, meaning if you have alot of mesos and stick with the process no matter how bad it gets. So in the end you would roughly generate 2m per workglove when all the scrolling ups and downs are taken into account.

Best method for scrolling wgs? - DarkQThunder - 2011-02-04

people, you're forgetting there's a 3% tax on 100m+ sales...

Best method for scrolling wgs? - Shidoshi - 2011-02-04

Well, I'm sure the OP can continue from now on with his own calculations using the numbers he'll find with his market research. He can include the tax as well.

It's no use if everyone does the same scheme as then the prices for GFAs will probably go up and make it no longer a profitable option.