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+--- Thread: Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. (/showthread.php?tid=59978)
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Corn - 2013-01-05
Early cop reveal is pretty....not good. You saw what happened? Once the doctor died, the detective was dead. Nothing we could do about it. If detective kept silent until at least a confirmed mafia pops up, we would still have a detective. Revealing yourself as detective gives the town no information whatsoever besides 1 or 2 confirmed innocents, which gives 3 targets for the mafia to kill.
It's just basic probability that it's always good for the town and the mafia to kill whenever they can (except if you're perhaps a vigilante). Proof is somewhere out there on the internet.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - MetaSeraphim - 2013-01-05
I am curious, Words, who did you try to look into on your final night?
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Words - 2013-01-05
Tay.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Chilly - 2013-01-05
Corn Wrote:It's just basic probability that it's always good for the town and the mafia to kill whenever they can (except if you're perhaps a vigilante). Proof is somewhere out there on the internet.
What type of probability are we working with here? Did you expect there to be 6 mafia? I was new to the game so maybe a 25% chance to kill a mafioso vs. 75% chance to kill a villager is par for the course and an acceptable risk/good for the town. I would even accept that premise in a large game with 30 or so people using the 1:3 odds, but in such a small game where you were almost as likely to kill the doctor or detective at random as you were mafia, I just can't fathom that.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Corn - 2013-01-05
Chilly Wrote:What type of probability are we working with here? Did you expect there to be 6 mafia? I was new to the game so maybe a 25% chance to kill a mafioso vs. 75% chance to kill a villager is par for the course and an acceptable risk/good for the town. I would even accept that premise in a large game with 30 or so people using the 1:3 odds, but in such a small game where you were almost as likely to kill the doctor or detective at random as you were mafia, I just can't fathom that.
You're not likely to kill the doctor or detective, because hopefully by that point they'd have roleclaimed.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Words - 2013-01-05
My point exactly, it forces them to claim and that doesn't help town. It's worse if it outs doctor because even if he doesn't get lynched he's most likely dead next day.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Chilly - 2013-01-05
Corn Wrote:You're not likely to kill the doctor or detective, because hopefully by that point they'd have roleclaimed.
They would have roleclaimed at the beginning? Weren't you chastising Words about revealing too soon? I only mention the beginning because that's when the random lynching was initiated, if semi-random lynching is acceptable once the doctor or detective is revealed why random lynch when probability says one is nearly as likely to kill them as a mafioso? I understand both your points (I think):
- Important characters ought not reveal themselves too early.
- Random lynching is advantageous when you know the detective and/or doctor (thus semi-random).
- When probability dictates, it is also acceptable to random lynch.
But to me, it doesn't seem either of those were in effect.
For bullets one and two: We didn't know either when random lynching started and we shouldn't have known. At first random lynch we there was a 17% chance to kill either v. 25% chance to kill mafia. Since Words revealed himself at second lynch it was probably favorable to random lynch 9% v. 27% if we disregard vanilla townies.
For bullet three: If we do regard vanilla townies + special townies, unless people were acting suspiciously, probability would dictate that random lynching was still not appropriate until around a third murder.
Of course, it doesn't help that the doctor was from foreign lands with mannerisms that the locals didn't exactly understand (read: acted extremely suspicious).
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Words - 2013-01-05
In epicmafia randomlynch was only acceptable when no one has a clue and it's lylo. And to me that's the only reasonable time to do so.
With the cop out and he's investigations, he can lead a better randomlynch.
At least there wasn't a fool...
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Jedward - 2013-01-05
Words Wrote:epicmafia's
Words Wrote:Epicmafia
Words Wrote:In epicmafia
This is not epicmafia.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Curtiss - 2013-01-05
That was the oddest Mafia game I'd ever played but the results were predictable once the doctor and detective bit the dust. :f6:
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Loose - 2013-01-05
We were actually going to kill Zelkova on the first night, but then we decided for Words. Shits and giggles:
Night I
Night II
Night III
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Corn - 2013-01-05
Chilly Wrote:They would have roleclaimed at the beginning? Weren't you chastising Words about revealing too soon? I only mention the beginning because that's when the random lynching was initiated, if semi-random lynching is acceptable once the doctor or detective is revealed why random lynch when probability says one is nearly as likely to kill them as a mafioso? I understand both your points (I think):
- Important characters ought not reveal themselves too early.
- Random lynching is advantageous when you know the detective and/or doctor (thus semi-random).
- When probability dictates, it is also acceptable to random lynch.
But to me, it doesn't seem either of those were in effect.
For bullets one and two: We didn't know either when random lynching started and we shouldn't have known. At first random lynch we there was a 17% chance to kill either v. 25% chance to kill mafia. Since Words revealed himself at second lynch it was probably favorable to random lynch 9% v. 27% if we disregard vanilla townies.
For bullet three: If we do regard vanilla townies + special townies, unless people were acting suspiciously, probability would dictate that random lynching was still not appropriate until around a third murder.
Of course, it doesn't help that the doctor was from foreign lands with mannerisms that the locals didn't exactly understand (read: acted extremely suspicious).
It's unlikely you random lynch the doctor or detective day 0. You only reveal if you're clearly going to get lynched or you have good information.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Words - 2013-01-05
Jedward Wrote:This is not epicmafia.
So what?
It relates more to what we have here than real life playing.
Not to mention that I was targeted once because I seem to know a bit about the game, and I learnt everything there, so it's worth mentioning, especially when asked.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - MasPan - 2013-01-05
Corn is missing the MAJOR actual dvantage to a random lynch day 1 - it gets people talking, voting, countervoting, defending themselves, finger pointing, etc. It gets pomegranate going. In a lot of games having no votes simply results in a random lynch anyway (depending on the host). At any rate, the random lynch/voting gives the town a starting point, a whole day's worth of information they'd otherwise be throwing away by waiting for nightfall/something to happen.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Maping - 2013-01-05
Words Wrote:Tay.
Wasn't he mafia? Unless I'm mistaken, you claimed the first person you investigated was a townie.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Words - 2013-01-05
Corn
Verrkol
Tay
You guys missed a lot of stuff or something.
Corn asked like 3 times who I investigated and like 2 more times why I claimed.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Corn - 2013-01-05
Words Wrote:CornI'm either having cornitis again or you never replied specifically who you investigated or you edited it in
Verrkol
Tay
You guys missed a lot of stuff or something.
Corn asked like 3 times who I investigated and like 2 more times why I claimed.
.
Beginner's Mafia. Mafia wins. - Maping - 2013-01-05
Scratch that, MetaSeraphim asked about your final investigation, not your first. Stupid me.