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+--- Thread: Question on Drop Rate (/showthread.php?tid=73038)
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-16
Today's runs were with Greed Pendant and a 2x drop coupon (Use-type, not CS-type). The one in the 11/1 Monster Purge Box.
Results: 86, 84, 81, 76, 91, 88, 95, 78, 88, 79
Average = 84.6
This suggests that the Greed Pendant is again overridden by the other drop buff.
tecul1 Wrote:Now that I can stay on maple for more than ten minutes without frustrating lag:
Would it be helpful if I got on my mules with pets, and greed+spider to test this at DI further?
Testing for the amount of equips dropped also sounds like a good idea.
Glad to hear your lag is cured
I think the drop rate of equips is too low for the results to have much meaning. Sometimes I get two equips, sometimes 15, on the same drop multiplier. There's no harm in keeping track, but I doubt it'll help us any.
Data I would like you to gather, if you would (this is by priority, so stop whenever you've had enough DI for one day):
1) For your main: A set of 10 runs with all your gear and no spider. This should help confirm what we saw with Straatlamp, which looks like Greed pendant doesn't count among other equips with drop rate potential.
2) 10 runs with no pendant or spider. We actually have very few "clean" runs that we've deduced the base drop rate from.
3) 10 runs with Greed pendant alone. We need confirmation that the Greed pendant works at all, when it's by itself.
4) 10 runs with Spider alone. My Pig results look more like 1.5x than 1.6x, although they're not definitive. More data will help.
5) 10 runs with both Pendant and Spider. The more data for this configuration, the better, especially as this is a very popular setup among maplers.
For runs without Spider, try not to have the spider out even before going to DI (or relog once you're there). It seems to have lingering effects.
Are any of your mules of a class that has a drop-increasing skill (HS, Showdown, or Kanna's Monkey Spirit), or (far shot) has drop rate Inner Ability? If so, please test that skill by itself (no pendant or spider).
Thanks so much for helping!
Question on Drop Rate - tecul1 - 2014-11-16
SaptaZapta Wrote:Are any of your mules of a class that has a drop-increasing skill (HS, Showdown, or Kanna's Monkey Spirit), or (far shot) has drop rate Inner Ability? If so, please test that skill by itself (no pendant or spider).
Thanks so much for helping!
My 180 bishop has 8% drop inner. How would this work? Just do as usual?
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-16
tecul1 Wrote:My 180 bishop has 8% drop inner. How would this work? Just do as usual?
Does it have the HS-Item Drop Hyper? (I don't remember what level that is)
If yes, then let's do HS alone at first. I doubt we'd be able to tell whether it's additive or multiplicative with the Inner Ability, but maybe.
If not, then go with pendant and spider, and let's see how all three stack up.
Question on Drop Rate - tecul1 - 2014-11-16
Oh I also got a demon slayer. Would that help too?
EDIT: 2 20% and Greed
61 52 61 52 76 65 60 62 55
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-16
tecul1 Wrote:Oh I also got a demon slayer. Would that help too?
Is it able to complete the PQ using only Demon Cry? If so, then we should test that (with pendant and spider, if it has them). If not, then I'd rather not use it at all. If not all enemies die while under the effect of Demon Cry, then we're just adding noise to the measurements.
Question on Drop Rate - tecul1 - 2014-11-16
SaptaZapta Wrote:Is it able to complete the PQ using only Demon Cry? If so, then we should test that (with pendant and spider, if it has them). If not, then I'd rather not use it at all. If not all enemies die while under the effect of Demon Cry, then we're just adding noise to the measurements.
I thought the point was to test demon cry .-.
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-16
tecul1 Wrote:I thought the point was to test demon cry .-.
It is. So if you can use that consistently, go for it!
If you'd rather test it by itself first, without pendant and spider, that's good too. We shouldn't take Nexon's word for how much it raises drop rate.
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-17
Today's runs, with no pendant or familiar: 53, 58, 41, 46, 47, 44, 56, 38, 57, 59
Average 49.9
:f6:
Question on Drop Rate - RayGun - 2014-11-17
SaptaZapta Wrote:Today's runs, with no pendant or familiar: 53, 58, 41, 46, 47, 44, 56, 38, 57, 59
Average 49.9
:f6:
Hmm, maybe you are unusually lucky for drops? People have rumoured that the IGN or some other thing connected to your character can influence scrolling chance?
probably more tests of base rate are needed.
though previous derivations of the base rate were made assuming the stated bonus was correct, so they may be less accurate.
as for demon cry, I read the description and it appears from it that the effect lasts for 12 or 15 sec after you cast it. i don't think you even have to hit the monster with it? but not sure o this last one.
so you do not have to kill only with the skill and can use others. it works with the exp portion, as I found when training
dc is a decent skill for training and hits a very large area, but you may need to recharge using the ctrl skill
another bizarre possibliity:
this may be a psychological trick, but I have often felt that multiple kills have produced less satisfying drops than when I killed monsters with a single monster attack. such as if I kill 8 mobs at once, it produces less than 8 times what I would have gotten if I had killed 1. but logically I cannot think of a reason why and it probably is a psychological perception bias thingy
beast tamer i think also might have a item boost skills.
also note the minimum sample size needed for each test (post 46)
eg: to successfully differentiate between a 1.8 and 1,92 you need at least 46 runs, if you get an average between 1.8 and 1.92. 46 runs will mean that the variance of the group mean is reduced sufficiently
or if you get an average above 1.92 or below 1.8 you don't need that many runs
Question on Drop Rate - tecul1 - 2014-11-17
RayGun Wrote:as for demon cry, I read the description and it appears from it that the effect lasts for 12 or 15 sec after you cast it. i don't think you even have to hit the monster with it? but not sure o this last one.
so you do not have to kill only with the skill and can use others. it works with the exp portion, as I found when training
dc is a decent skill for training and hits a very large area, but you may need to recharge using the ctrl skill
Demon cry gives the exp increase even if you OHKO with it.
RayGun Wrote:beast tamer i think also might have a item boost skills.
They do, it's called Sticky Paws or something.
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-17
RayGun Wrote:Hmm, maybe you are unusually lucky for drops? People have rumoured that the IGN or some other thing connected to your character can influence scrolling chance?
probably more tests of base rate are needed.
The original estimate for the base rate comes from my experience, too. So it can't be that I'm unusually lucky all the time.
But Maple's RNG is known for "clumping" and other weird phenomena. I remember back in the day when farming Pieces of Time, if you found the "dropping channel" you could get one every 10 minutes, but if you didn't, you wouldn't get any in an hour.
So I guess I just happened on a generous stretch.
And I know we need more base rate tests. Straatlamp planned to have a mule run with no gear for that, and I asked tecul1 to do so too, but they haven't had a chance to do those tests yet.
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-18
And today's runs, with Greed Pendant: 54, 48, 66, 45, 39, 49, 53, 51
average 50.6
whatever
Question on Drop Rate - ItascaIil - 2014-11-19
Looks like the pens stopped dropping but I did a few runs the pass couple of days. It's time consuming so I focused on 2 of my characters that I could do it on.
for my NL
base 48.41.47.56.50.41.54.48.56.55
w/showdown 78,66,59,61,50,47,65,57,56,-
w/showdown+greed 69,65,68,45,70,52,60,48,47,67
for my Luminous
base 61,54,52,55,41,63,52,47,48,58
base 56,53,42,51,37,46,38,40,58,62
Hopefully this helps. If there's something else to try, I can try to do it too if I'm not busy.
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-19
ItascaIil Wrote:Looks like the pens stopped dropping but I did a few runs the pass couple of days. It's time consuming so I focused on 2 of my characters that I could do it on.
for my NL
base 48.41.47.56.50.41.54.48.56.55 average = 49.6
w/showdown 78,66,59,61,50,47,65,57,56,- average = 59.9
w/showdown+greed 69,65,68,45,70,52,60,48,47,67 average = 59.1
for my Luminous
base 61,54,52,55,41,63,52,47,48,58 average = 53.1
base 56,53,42,51,37,46,38,40,58,62 average = 48.3
Hopefully this helps. If there's something else to try, I can try to do it too if I'm not busy.
Thank you, this helps quite a bit. It confirms that the base drop rate is about 50.
It might be that we do have the same Greed Pendant as MSEA (only adds to equip drop rate), or it does nothing at all.
Is your NL's showdown level 10? It looks to be giving about a 20% buff.
Question on Drop Rate - ItascaIil - 2014-11-19
Oh, my showdown is maxed at lvl 20.
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-19
ItascaIil Wrote:Oh, my showdown is maxed at lvl 20.
That's odd. It should be 30% then. RNG, or skill is broken, I wonder.
Question on Drop Rate - RayGun - 2014-11-19
SaptaZapta Wrote:Thank you, this helps quite a bit. It confirms that the base drop rate is about 50.
It might be that we do have the same Greed Pendant as MSEA (only adds to equip drop rate), or it does nothing at all.
Is your NL's showdown level 10? It looks to be giving about a 20% buff.
funnily enough I have a feeling it may be the latter
remember when it said it could not be ruled out that it works doesn't mean it does work. it is like a double negative.
with more tests we can say that it is increasingly unlikely that the pendant works since we have had so many results which go against it working.
I estimate that with 25 or 30 tests with base and with a pendant we may be able to see if there is a statistically significant difference between them ( a 1 vs 1.2). then the variance should have reduced sufficiently so we can tell
also if i haven't mentioned already, a strange thing happens to me with EXP coupons, presumably it may with the drop coupons. ( these are the ones gifted in events that last for 1 hour). These have no effect for me until I cc. It might be that it takes a while for it to kick in, but I just don't get the bonus EXP until I cc. I have never waited for it to kick in though.
same thing could happen with drop coupons but it is hard to tell
as for the bonus for showdown by Itas. it is probably within statistically acceptable bounds
standard deviation for the 1.3 would be about 7.5/sqrt 10 which is about 2.5
multiply by 1.96 to get the confidence interval 95pc
so basically we have a range of values of +/- 5 where it could still be that it is still 30pc
and 10% of 40 or 50 is just within it 5 so it probably could still be 30% bonus. (just on the edge, have to redo whole calculations to be sure, too tired to do that now)
but as usual, nexon's RNG is on the borderline of being broken, but not broken enough that it gets taken to the trash
Question on Drop Rate - SaptaZapta - 2014-11-19
OK. This particular phase of testing has ended, as the philosoquill pens are no longer dropping.
This is all the data we've accumulated:
(I am not counting the first few days, when we were changing gear constantly, as that might be too inconsistent).
Base rate: average = 49.6
Sapta: 45, 42, 49, 38; 53, 58, 41, 46, 47, 44, 56, 38, 57, 59;
ItascaIil NL: 48, 41, 47, 56, 50, 41, 54, 48, 56, 55
ItascaIil Lumi: 61, 54, 52, 55, 41, 63, 52, 47, 48, 58; 56, 53, 42, 51, 37, 46, 38, 40, 58, 62
Greed pendant: average = 50.4
Sapta: 55, 46, 52, 50, 57, 51, 58, 40, 52, 42; 54, 48, 66, 45, 39, 49, 53, 51;
Mutant Ribbon Pig familiar: average = 68.2 = 1.38x base
Sapta: 72, 75, 82, 67; 61, 58, 72, 70, 74, 54, 74, 60, 64, 72;
2 x 20% drop equips + Greed pendant: average = 60.4 = 1.22x base
tecul1: 61, 52, 61, 52, 76, 65, 60, 62, 55
8 x 20% drop equips + Greed pendant + 20% additional drop on Greed: average = 119 = 2.4x base
Straatlamp: 103, 134, 105, 136, 122, 116, 96, 120, 139
8 x 20% drop equips + Greed pendant + 20% additional drop on Greed + Wolf Underling familiar: average = 237.25 = 4.78x base
Straatlamp: 227, 244, 250, 241, 228, 233, 245, 230
Greed pendant + 20% additional drop on Greed + Wolf Underling familiar: average = 108.4 = 2.19x base
Straatlamp: 114, 104, 113, 113, 101, 105, 104, 99, 118, 113
Mutant Ribbon Pig familiar + Greed pendant: average = 66.68 = 1.34x base
Sapta: 63, 69, 63, 82, 70, 72, 74, 63, 57; 75, 79, 59, 50, 59, 64, 71, 75, 62, 60;
Greed Pendant + 2x drop USE coupon: average = 84.6 = 1.7x base
Sapta: 86, 84, 81, 76, 91, 88, 95, 78, 88, 79
Showdown: average = 59.88 = 1.2x base
ItascaIil NL: 78, 66, 59, 61, 50, 47, 65, 57, 56
Showdown + Greed: average = 59.1 = 1.19x base
ItascaIil NL: 69, 65, 68, 45, 70, 52, 60, 48, 47, 67
Conclusions:
- Greed Pendant does nothing. It might boost equipment drop rate as in MSEA.
- Equipment potential %drop lines are additive
- Familiar is multiplicative with equipment
- Mutant Ribbon Pig familiar probably boosts drop by less than the 60% previously assumed.
MapleStory's RNG sucks horribly. The base rate is the one we have the most data for, and should therefore be the most reliable. However, if we assume it is correct, then everything else - Equipment, Pig, Showdown, and even the 2x drop coupon - gives very low results compared to what it nominally should. If we assume the base is 44, most everything else falls into place.
There's also the slight possibility that the drop rate for this item was changed at some point.
As a result of this horrible RNG, we can't really conclude much else at this point. (RayGun, correct me if that's wrong).
Hopefully soon we will get another event with common drops that we can test with.
Thanks to everyone that participated!
Question on Drop Rate - RayGun - 2014-11-19
perhaps you could try with the honor medals. and use dalair kill 999999 quest to count. though that would be quite tedious and difficult since dalair quest does not appear in quest helper last time i checked
. you would have to open quest window or chat to himi have done a regression analysis of the whole thing which i think is more accurate than the ones before since they were a bit rather piecemeal analysis. lets see the possible value of the boosts based on the data gathered,
| Coefficients | Lower 95.0% | Upper 95.0% | lower range boost, rate | upper boost rate | notes | |
| Intercept (base rate) | 49.614 | 47.138 | 52.089 | 0.950 | 1.050 | 1 |
| Greed pendant | 0.831 | -3.764 | 5.426 | -0.076 | 0.109 | probably zero |
| Mutant Ribbon Pig familiar | 18.601 | 13.561 | 23.640 | 0.273 | 0.476 | not 60 |
| 2 x 20% drop equips + Greed pendant | 10.831 | 4.823 | 16.839 | 0.097 | 0.339 | not 60 nor 40 |
| 8 x 20% drop equips + Greed pendant + 20% additional drop on Greed | 69.386 | 63.378 | 75.394 | 1.277 | 1.520 | below 160 |
| 8 x 20% drop equips + Greed pendant + 20% additional drop on Greed + Wolf Underling familiar | 187.636 | 181.324 | 193.948 | 3.655 | 3.909 | 3.8 most likely |
| Greed pendant + 20% additional drop on Greed + Wolf Underling familiar | 58.786 | 53.033 | 64.540 | 1.069 | 1.301 | 1.2 probably |
| Mutant Ribbon Pig familiar + Greed pendant | 17.071 | 12.562 | 21.579 | 0.253 | 0.435 | not 80 nor 60 |
| Greed Pendant + 2x drop USE coupon | 34.986 | 29.233 | 40.740 | 0.589 | 0.821 | under 100pc. Not 120 |
| Showdown | 10.275 | 4.267 | 16.283 | 0.086 | 0.328 | 30 |
| Showdown + Greed | 9.486 | 3.733 | 15.240 | 0.075 | 0.307 | 30 |
the increase in base rate toward the end of experiment when more results came in changed many results from before and it can be concluded based on what was observed, that many of their drop boost features do not work as described.
columns lower and upper boost show the possible range of values at 95% confidence. that is sort of like saying we are 95% certain that it is within those two bounds. for those with more values tested we have a narrower bound, like base rate.
appears that greed pendant is no effect here.
showdown can be still said to be 30pc
mutant pig does not appear to give full listed boost nor does the overlapping 20pc equips. but I note that these appear to have been done earlier and back then they did end up being possible to be giving the full listed boosts. it could be explained if the nex people raised drop rate later in the event period. (but of course why would they do such a thing?)
sadly use coupon does not appear to give full boost either. however I would like to add that the use coupons, for me at least, may have had some sort of delay glitch in them, where you had to wait or CC to get it to start working. (it may have been 100pc if we went on the base rate from earlier tests so it could be saved if we think that they raised drop rate)
of course all the above assumes that the RNG is fair and that they have kept drop rate the same. If the RNG was biased in some way it would be harder to conclude whether the boosts in drop rate were as described
Question on Drop Rate - ApplePond - 2014-11-21
I suppose this Basilmarket thread is somewhat mentionworthy. It seems as though players don't notice an increased drop amount, when using the Greed Pendant in Sengoku High.
http://www.basilmarket.com/forum/2853263/0/Greed_pendant_gltiched__not_working_correctly_.html
On another note, a Maple forumer posted a bug report, using the information gained from this thread.