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Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Printable Version

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Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Sorien - 2011-07-30

Locked Wrote:mfw two criticals are always the same damage.

Not on Victoria Island mobs, for some reason. The paired crits vary greatly from one monster to the next, but happen significantly more often on monsters in Leafre, Nath, and Ludibrium. Boss monsters seem to always cause paired crits.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Vek - 2011-07-30

That would explain why rage-cubing always ends in disaster. Tongue


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Blades4hire - 2011-07-30

Imagine what could be done if Maple's RNG was cracked similar to how Pokemon's was cracked.
It's probably not possible because the RNG is obviously server sided, but if someone got access to the RNG information, they could single handedly break the game.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Fenne - 2011-07-31

Veneni Wrote:I call BS. How can you predict a random number generator unless you have a supercomputer with advanced informatics on it, and even then.

What I originally said is not unknown amongst other people in the community. Anyone with a computer science degree and some understanding of how number and variable generation is done for online gaming could take a look at maplestory and tell you the number generation is sloppy. And when things are sloppy, you can learn to recognize patterns, and manipulate them. Some are more easily recognized than others, and you can't always manipulate it to your favor, but any piece of info is better than nothing. How many times have you seen multiple rare gach items smega'd within several seconds of each other? The first time I saw someone pull 3 bloody rose chairs out of gach within 15 seconds of the first one I thought I was going nuts. You think they hit a .0001% chance of success 3 times in a row? The reality is that the RNG "seed" was positive and there was an artificially high chance of success for those X number of seconds. More examples we have all seen are: cubing something to epic, and the very next cube it going unique, multiple equips dropping within seconds of each other back in the day when equips were rare, multiple scrolls dropping or 30%'s working when used, chaos giving or taking away the same amount when used back to back, several of the same 'family' of scrolls coming out of gach in a row. These are most likely not lucky streaks, but multiple hits from the same positive RNG "seed" bleeding over from one to the next.

Don't believe me or say I'm full of pomegranate or whatever, but no one thought blackjack could be rigged until they started counting cards. A positive seed isn't going to make your chances of success 100%, but it can artificially inflate your chance of success beyond what the standard hard-coded odds are. The converse is also true. The seed can be negative, and it can actually hurt your chances of success. How many people blew up tons of equips with 90% pot scrolls, fury cubed something 100 times out of anger and never saw a rare change to epic, or an epic to unique, used a ton of scrolls and none of them worked, or gached and got multiple HP and def scrolls in a row? You might not have been 'unlucky', you might have been dealing with a deflated chance of success which hurt your chances before you could even begin.

I developed a set of rules when cubing about a year ago, (and it also could be applied to scrolling and gaching as well) and stuck to them vehemently. I turned basically what ended up being three complete sets of gear from rare to unique over the course of 6 months, without spending an arseload of money on cubes. I know people don't all have that amount of success, and I know I wasn't just 'lucky'. I stuck to my rules and did my best to identify the seed relativity and things generally turned out for the better. From my personal experience, the RNG seed doesn't jump around within a matter of seconds randomly - positive, normal, negative, negative, normal, negative, positive, normal, normal, etc; it comes and goes in waves and the seed can stay positive or negative for several seconds at a time. We will never know just how long the seed stays in its current state, it could only be 3 seconds, it could be 8, a negative seed could last for 40 minutes...but if you can learn to recognize when the seed is positive, and when it is negative, you can save yourself actual money. Even if you can't manipulate it to your success, its bloody brilliant to know when not to do something.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Blades4hire - 2011-07-31

Fenne Wrote:What I originally said is not unknown amongst other people in the community. Anyone with a computer science degree and some understanding of how number and variable generation is done for online gaming could take a look at maplestory and tell you the number generation is sloppy. And when things are sloppy, you can learn to recognize patterns, and manipulate them. Some are more easily recognized than others, and you can't always manipulate it to your favor, but any piece of info is better than nothing. How many times have you seen multiple rare gach items smega'd within several seconds of each other? The first time I saw someone pull 3 bloody rose chairs out of gach within 15 seconds of the first one I thought I was going nuts. You think they hit a .0001% chance of success 3 times in a row? The reality is that the RNG "seed" was positive and there was an artificially high chance of success for those X number of seconds. More examples we have all seen are: cubing something to epic, and the very next cube it going unique, multiple equips dropping within seconds of each other back in the day when equips were rare, multiple scrolls dropping or 30%'s working when used, chaos giving or taking away the same amount when used back to back, several of the same 'family' of scrolls coming out of gach in a row. These are most likely not lucky streaks, but multiple hits from the same positive RNG "seed" bleeding over from one to the next.

Don't believe me or say I'm full of pomegranate or whatever, but no one thought blackjack could be rigged until they started counting cards. A positive seed isn't going to make your chances of success 100%, but it can artificially inflate your chance of success beyond what the standard hard-coded odds are. The converse is also true. The seed can be negative, and it can actually hurt your chances of success. How many people blew up tons of equips with 90% pot scrolls, fury cubed something 100 times out of anger and never saw a rare change to epic, or an epic to unique, used a ton of scrolls and none of them worked, or gached and got multiple HP and def scrolls in a row? You might not have been 'unlucky', you might have been dealing with a deflated chance of success which hurt your chances before you could even begin.

I developed a set of rules when cubing about a year ago, (and it also could be applied to scrolling and gaching as well) and stuck to them vehemently. I turned basically what ended up being three complete sets of gear from rare to unique over the course of 6 months, without spending an arseload of money on cubes. I know people don't all have that amount of success, and I know I wasn't just 'lucky'. I stuck to my rules and did my best to identify the seed relativity and things generally turned out for the better. From my personal experience, the RNG seed doesn't jump around within a matter of seconds randomly - positive, normal, negative, negative, normal, negative, positive, normal, normal, etc; it comes and goes in waves and the seed can stay positive or negative for several seconds at a time. We will never know just how long the seed stays in its current state, it could only be 3 seconds, it could be 8, a negative seed could last for 40 minutes...but if you can learn to recognize when the seed is positive, and when it is negative, you can save yourself actual money. Even if you can't manipulate it to your success, its bloody brilliant to know when not to do something.

Hope I'm not being pushy here, but can you please list some of these rules?
I'm sure it would help people out :p


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - octopusprime - 2011-07-31

An important thing for people is that the seed that matters for cubing is not when an item is revealed, but when it is made hidden.

Also the card counting analogy is rather poor in relation to number seeding and RNGs. As it isn't random at all, just keeping track of a limited set of variables and noting how it affects certain probabilities. Also it is hard to impossible in many Vegas casinos as time goes on. The only similarity is to "hit" when you find a certain desirable thing is likely. (not to mention counting as done conventionally is not necessarily the most advantageous way to play the game)

Cept high-roller tables of course. Wink


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - JPTheMonkey - 2011-07-31

Blades4hire Wrote:Hope I'm not being pushy here, but can you please list some of these rules?
I'm sure it would help people out :p

I would believe the rules follow the descriptions of possible "positive" seeds. Such as waiting for gach to go well, or waiting for a friend to say "OMG! UNIQUE!".

This whole idea is really interesting, to say the least. I wouldn't mind saving my money a few months down the road when I cube for Decent SE and 30% boss.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Veneni - 2011-07-31

Fenne Wrote:What I originally said is not unknown amongst other people in the community. Anyone with a computer science degree and some understanding of how number and variable generation is done for online gaming could take a look at maplestory and tell you the number generation is sloppy. And when things are sloppy, you can learn to recognize patterns, and manipulate them. Some are more easily recognized than others, and you can't always manipulate it to your favor, but any piece of info is better than nothing. How many times have you seen multiple rare gach items smega'd within several seconds of each other? The first time I saw someone pull 3 bloody rose chairs out of gach within 15 seconds of the first one I thought I was going nuts. You think they hit a .0001% chance of success 3 times in a row? The reality is that the RNG "seed" was positive and there was an artificially high chance of success for those X number of seconds. More examples we have all seen are: cubing something to epic, and the very next cube it going unique, multiple equips dropping within seconds of each other back in the day when equips were rare, multiple scrolls dropping or 30%'s working when used, chaos giving or taking away the same amount when used back to back, several of the same 'family' of scrolls coming out of gach in a row. These are most likely not lucky streaks, but multiple hits from the same positive RNG "seed" bleeding over from one to the next.

Don't believe me or say I'm full of pomegranate or whatever, but no one thought blackjack could be rigged until they started counting cards. A positive seed isn't going to make your chances of success 100%, but it can artificially inflate your chance of success beyond what the standard hard-coded odds are. The converse is also true. The seed can be negative, and it can actually hurt your chances of success. How many people blew up tons of equips with 90% pot scrolls, fury cubed something 100 times out of anger and never saw a rare change to epic, or an epic to unique, used a ton of scrolls and none of them worked, or gached and got multiple HP and def scrolls in a row? You might not have been 'unlucky', you might have been dealing with a deflated chance of success which hurt your chances before you could even begin.

I developed a set of rules when cubing about a year ago, (and it also could be applied to scrolling and gaching as well) and stuck to them vehemently. I turned basically what ended up being three complete sets of gear from rare to unique over the course of 6 months, without spending an arseload of money on cubes. I know people don't all have that amount of success, and I know I wasn't just 'lucky'. I stuck to my rules and did my best to identify the seed relativity and things generally turned out for the better. From my personal experience, the RNG seed doesn't jump around within a matter of seconds randomly - positive, normal, negative, negative, normal, negative, positive, normal, normal, etc; it comes and goes in waves and the seed can stay positive or negative for several seconds at a time. We will never know just how long the seed stays in its current state, it could only be 3 seconds, it could be 8, a negative seed could last for 40 minutes...but if you can learn to recognize when the seed is positive, and when it is negative, you can save yourself actual money. Even if you can't manipulate it to your success, its bloody brilliant to know when not to do something.
It's called being lucky. I would bet money on cubing to epic being a 10% chance and cubing to unique being a 5% chance. So cubing rare to unique in 2 cubes has a chance of 0.5% That means 1 in 200 people using a pair of cubes (so if you use 10, that's 5 pairs) have that chance. That is HUGE!
Pulling 3 chairs out of gach could be a little glitch in the system, but if what you say is true, it should have been 20 chairs.

I know the basics of RNG's, and random numbers in general, AKA statistics. There's bound to be a streak of high/low numbers anywhere in the string of random numbers, otherwise they wouldn't be random. Imagine them being low - high - low - high - low etc. That wouldn't be random at all. The same applies if you zoom out and take alot more numbers in account. If every 359't number is a high number, the code isn't random. There are testst to detect these things.

More proof: Pi is truely random. Click here to go to a webpage that allows you to find strings of numbers in pi. Try looking for 111111111, or 999999999. Both accur and have a chance of 1/1000000000 of occuring in a random string of 9 numbers, which is very small, but they occur nonetheless. If you follow your reasoning, you're saying Pi isn't random because these "winning/losing streaks" occur. And you say if you see four 9's, there's bound to be another five 9's. No, four 9's occur the whole time (12 times in the first 100,000 numbers of pi, lol this site is awesome xD). The numbers after those four 9's is evenly random as the ones where there are four different numbers.

It's human nature to detect patterns in things, but you got to watch out for that and think it through first. On basil someone failed 9 90%'s in a row. Does that mean his account is jinxed? A glitch prevents him from passing scrolls? A hack maybe? Or just pure bad luck? Would you tell him to stop scrolling?

Anyways I'm not saying I don't believe you, because it is possible the RGN is in waves of seconds and not in nanoseconds. You can convince me by logging them and applieing random number tests on them, but all I see you do now is saying "wow someone gachad two of the same things in rapid succession, I have to cube my cape right away!", which is just silly.

It's pretty easy to test by the way, you can use damage as the RNG. It needs multiple random numbers per second.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - CarrionCrow - 2011-07-31

I think I'll have to go with Veneni on this one.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Locked - 2011-07-31

MAPLESTORY'S RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR SUCKS.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - octopusprime - 2011-08-01

CarrionCrow Wrote:I think I'll have to go with Veneni on this one.

Pretty sure he is actually wrong. He's mistaking streaks in true randomness for poor simulated randomness.

Do you really find the likelihood of maplestory just being so truly random more likely than just being poorly randomized?

Not to mention venne is exaggerating the functionality people are suggesting that this has or could have to inflate his own argument?

TBH i'm fairly certain maple employs either two many RNGs or only one. The too many theory comes from the thought that some of them are poorly suited for the task at hand or sloppy. The only one theory comes from the possibility that it's just the same one altered by varying levels of compression and creating these notable trends, or causing them to be noticeably off in sections due to clumping.

While yes, people tend to see in patterns. Some patterns are also there. This is maplestory, not pi after all.

I'm going to stick with my belief that the game is poorly randomized as opposed to being so well randomized that it seems like it isn't.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Nepi - 2011-08-01

Soo... should I only use scrolls/cubes/gacha within seconds I see other people being lucky with them? o.o


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Okiesmokie - 2011-08-01

octopusprime Wrote:He's mistaking streaks in true randomness for poor simulated randomness.
There is no such thing as true randomness.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Locked - 2011-08-01

Okiesmokie Wrote:There is no such thing as true randomness.

http://www.random.org/


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Veneni - 2011-08-01

Locked Wrote:MAPLESTORY'S RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR SUCKS.
That's more like a programming error in how the skills work than it is in the RNG. The skill probably asks for one too few random numbers so it takes the first one agian, or something. Testing the RNG would be done by logging your average damage over small time intervals. If the average is like a periodic high - low - high - low etc, something is wrong.

octopusprime Wrote:Pretty sure he is actually wrong. He's mistaking streaks in true randomness for poor simulated randomness.

Do you really find the likelihood of maplestory just being so truly random more likely than just being poorly randomized?

Not to mention venne is exaggerating the functionality people are suggesting that this has or could have to inflate his own argument?

TBH i'm fairly certain maple employs either two many RNGs or only one. The too many theory comes from the thought that some of them are poorly suited for the task at hand or sloppy. The only one theory comes from the possibility that it's just the same one altered by varying levels of compression and creating these notable trends, or causing them to be noticeably off in sections due to clumping.

While yes, people tend to see in patterns. Some patterns are also there. This is maplestory, not pi after all.

I'm going to stick with my belief that the game is poorly randomized as opposed to being so well randomized that it seems like it isn't.

I do think the RNG for maplestory is good enough. There are thousands of players are logged in at the same moment, requireing multiple random numbers every second. That would probably mean the RNG doesn't generate the random numbers itself, that would require too much computing power. It will work with a very, very long list of random numbers. Which is good enough because in order to crack the list (if you have the whole list you could determine "hot spots" like the 999999999 in Pi and make all scrolls pass) you would need to know all the numbers given to all the players currently online, which is impossible to do unless you hack every player currently online, or nexon's servers. Also, MS probably has like a hundred RNG's working next to each other, making it "even more random".

PS: Lists are "perfectly" random, because they can be tested thouroughly beforehand.

PPS: Also, if the game really had poor RNG, wouldn't there allready be a 100% scrollrate hack by now?


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - LargestRoad - 2011-08-01

The streak of lucky medals seems to evidence to me a millisecond-based RNG seed, so no human could possibly have the reflexes to take advantage of this of that were true.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - octopusprime - 2011-08-01

Okiesmokie Wrote:There is no such thing as true randomness.

Uhm. False.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - octopusprime - 2011-08-01

Veneni Wrote:That's more like a programming error in how the skills work than it is in the RNG.

With the same end result. Meaning that the RNG is still effectually a poor one if true. Meaning the RNG is a poor one if true. You're splitting the wrong hairs.

Quote:The skill probably asks for one too few random numbers so it takes the first one agian, or something. Testing the RNG would be done by logging your average damage over small time intervals. If the average is like a periodic high - low - high - low etc, something is wrong.

The rng can essentially just be a shuffle of the seed. Meaning for a lot of things this won't find you anything since the situation is entirely different.



Venne Wrote:I do think the RNG for maplestory is good enough. There are thousands of players are logged in at the same moment, requireing multiple random numbers every second. That would probably mean the RNG doesn't generate the random numbers itself, that would require too much computing power. It will work with a very, very long list of random numbers. Which is good enough because in order to crack the list (if you have the whole list you could determine "hot spots" like the 999999999 in Pi and make all scrolls pass) you would need to know all the numbers given to all the players currently online, which is impossible to do unless you hack every player currently online, or nexon's servers. Also, MS probably has like a hundred RNG's working next to each other, making it "even more random".

I just thank god that the Seeding is not done for individual players cause if it were i guarantee lolnexon would do it client side and we would've seen 100% scroll hacks a long time ago. The RNG itself could conciveably be client sided. Wait, it probably is, in part. (miss hacks anyone) I think the seed is randomized by a sort of a shuffling program in this game. And sometimes that program has it's results compressed which would explain multihit skills looping damage in a way.

Venne Wrote:PS: Lists are "perfectly" random, because they can be tested thouroughly beforehand.

How is this relevant?

Venne Wrote:PPS: Also, if the game really had poor RNG, wouldn't there allready be a 100% scrollrate hack by now?

Not necessarily as it would still depend on the seed which appears to be server sided (thank god) and my guess would be that it is the same for everyone on a given server/channel.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - Raul - 2011-08-01

Okay, this is broken. This is from a couple weeks ago. Also, the crit situation is getting really weird, as demonstrated here as well.
[Image: dcf28j.jpg]

Also, my venom damage is literally ALWAYS the same thing. Every single time.


Lol? Lots of Lucky Medal on Hot Time... - RedRaven16 - 2011-08-01

Raul Wrote:Okay, this is broken. This is from a couple weeks ago. Also, the crit situation is getting really weird, as demonstrated here as well.
-snip-
Also, my venom damage is literally ALWAYS the same thing. Every single time.

DoT dmg is ALWAYS the same. It uses your max dmg