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Global Warming? - Printable Version +- Southperry.net (https://www.southperry.net) +-- Forum: Social (https://www.southperry.net/forumdisplay.php?fid=14) +--- Forum: Rubik's Cube (https://www.southperry.net/forumdisplay.php?fid=58) +--- Thread: Global Warming? (/showthread.php?tid=7235) Pages:
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Global Warming? - Morgana - 2009-04-11 Thank you, Stereo. Glad to see someone who actually bothered to debunk the misleading statistics being used in this thread. Like this: Petraj Wrote:The IPCC is composed of around 2,000 scientists correct? Lets ignore the fact that some scientists on that list either no longer support the panel and even threatened to sue to remove their names or had their names added without their consent. Seems like a mighty number, but how does that compare to 31,000 scientists who reject the "'global warming' agena"? Oh boy, 31,000 is such a lot bigger than 2,000. I almost forgot that you're comparing 31,000 scientists (of which there are millions in the world, hundreds of thousands in the U.S. alone) and 2,000 members of a specific climate science organization. Grow up, people. So what if the Earth is entering a natural warming period? That doesn't mean we can't make it worse. And all data suggests that we are, and will, because we cannot stop the chain reactions occuring right now from the CO2 we emitted yesterday, or 10 years ago, or 100 years ago. "Wait and see" isn't really an option when the possible effects are so devastating. It's like being in a room that's flooding and saying, "Oh, I'll just wait and see if it'll get high enough to drown me, and I bet it's not even my fault." By the time it gets obviously dangerous, it's too late for you to fix the problem, and unlike a person in a room, the human race cannot escape the Earth. I've never seen Al Gore's movie. Don't treat one layman's-terms film as the basis of an entire debate, especially a debate that is so fundamentally scientific, and especially a film that is purposefully provocative. Global Warming? - Vathek - 2009-04-13 Petraj Wrote:NASA: Clean-air regs, not CO2, are melting the ice cap Sirrah, I regret to inform you that you are an imbecile This appears to be a genetic condition; it is implicit, and there is naught to be done about it good day to you. Cordially, Vathek. Global Warming? - Petraj - 2009-04-21 Stereo Wrote:This article has been widely trashed for being unscientific and inaccurate. They make some convenient assumptions (for example, that the Prius will be scrapped after 80,000 miles, while the Hummer will last over 300,000) that lead to their findings. If you build 4 Priuses and 1 Hummer, you'd tend to lose out on the fuel advantages of the Prius.Now this is what mystifies me. You have seen the results of having peer review (which I hurriedly mentioned in my previous post) over what seems to be a faulty and perhaps even a biased study. And yet you choose to believe in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) side. I'm man enough to accept these new findings and change my thoughts accordingly. When will you people do the same? By the way, the simulation that the Pacific Institute did used three Priuses, not four. Stereo Wrote:When has number of scientists (or people with bachelor of science) who agree with a theory determine whether it's correct?Exactly! Reason why many paint the whole AGW side as a religion. Because they have to believe (falsely) that their side holds the truth because there is a "consensus" (i.e. as if this is an election/popularity contest) that this is the case. Just look at Vathek as an example. These ignorant fools have the belief of the science process is actually that simple. You do have to realize how ironic and anti-AGW this statement of yours is when politicians and such use "consensus" to end the argument, right? Or perhaps are you playing devil's advocate here? Stereo Wrote:Going by the numbers on Wikipedia, it's easy to work it out. 25 million cubic km of ice. The Earth's total surface area is 361 million square km of water.Nice little sensationalized anecdote you did there. Too bad you overlooked two important items from that source, one of which I included in my post. First, this is sea ice in question. Most of the displacement has obviously already been done. Factoring in the 9% of increased volume due to being frozen and the impact of at least the non-submerged ice will at most be minimal. Or put in a non half-baked manner, "The melting of sea ice -- fast ice and pack ice -- does not cause sea levels to rise because the ice is in the water. Sea levels may rise with losses from freshwater ice sheets on the polar caps" (source). And second, the seasonal variation runs at about 25% (source). Do we see massive coastal floodings worldwide? Absolutely not. Thus putting your calculated fear mongering number of 10 feet in 30 years irrelevant. I must confess, I really am wondering if either I unwittingly or sub-consciously laid out this trap to note how solid your feet are standing on Earth. It was most probably unwittingly considering, like you, I wrongly assumed that melting sea ice may have an effect on sea levels. Morgana Wrote:Thank you, Stereo. Glad to see someone who actually bothered to debunk the misleading statistics being used in this thread.You do realize that the only effective rebuttal he supplied was in reference to the Toyota Prius, right? All else came from Fantasia in "The Neverending Story" movie (saw it yesterday, so couldn't help including it). Morgana Wrote:And all data suggests that we are, and will, because we cannot stop the chain reactions occuring right now from the CO2 we emitted yesterday, or 10 years ago, or 100 years ago.Stop it, now. Like all AGW people here, stop using emotions as your argument. There is no such thing as "chain reactions" or "run away" in relation with carbon dioxide. The amount of potential warming with increasing CO2 does not increase linearly but logarithmically. Consider this. A rise of 180 ppm to 280 ppm is historically associated to 8 degrees Celsius of warming. While the concentration of 280 ppm in the year 1800 to 380 ppm around 2005 is only associated with about 0.7 C of warming (source). You guys should really read this report if your scientific grasp is minimal. Morgana Wrote:I've never seen Al Gore's movie. Don't treat one layman's-terms film as the basis of an entire debate, especially a debate that is so fundamentally scientific, and especially a film that is purposefully provocative.You're wrong there. It's not us who is using it as the basis, but your side. Plus, he has won the Nobel Peace Prize and (ironically) the Roger Revelle award. Hence why we have every reason to mention and attack it. Vathek Wrote:Sirrah,Grow up. Your childish and ignorant antics do not change what reality actually is. One has to wonder if Al Gore is a better man than you. Global Warming? - Thunda - 2009-04-22 Global warming is a fact; however, Al Gore is a convenient hypocrite. Global Warming? - Vathek - 2009-04-22 Petraj Wrote:Grow up. Your childish and ignorant antics do not change what reality actually is. One has to wonder if Al Gore is a better man than you. you're adorable can I get a version of you in doll-form so I can pull a string in the back and hear this post in your voice? if so, I'd like you to read it in a very ANGRY voice. Like someone just pissed in your oatmeal but you found out about it after you ate it. Global Warming? - Petraj - 2009-05-15 Sun Oddly Quiet -- Hints at Next "Little Ice Age"? This year's number of sunspots is still at a low, even though the current 11-year cycle points 2008 as a minimum and 2009's numbers on the up. This lull in activity reminds some scientists of the Little Ice Age (around 1300-1850), with the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) being the coldest and having a deep dip in activity. With there having no statistical warming for the past 10 years (source) it does make one wonder of the two correlations, even with the pro-AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) National Geographic desperately wanting to strap us down and look the other way. Ocean Cooling to Briefly Halt Global Warming, Researchers Say Incidentally, the Pacific Ocean has already experienced an extended La Nina. Another natural factor of the complex nature. Even the head of the IPCC has had to acknowledge (source) that Nature doesn't think much of AGW. That the natural cooling is having an effect on the IPCC's run-away, mega-catastrophic, ultra undeniable alleged fact of a warming world. Furthermore, the oceans may even make the northern hemisphere become colder. Not quite the news northern USA would want to hear, considering the heavy snow fall they received this winter that even crippled numerous areas (no clue about Canada, so sorry fellow Canadians if any suffered similar conditions). In the big view of things, I believe this may just be a sign of the north catching up with the cooling the southern hemisphere has already experienced. Back to the Jennifer Marohasy interview. NASA's Aqua satellite data disprove the current model that as more CO2 is pumped to the atmosphere and a warming ensues, more water vapor is created and a positive feedback happens. Instead, a little bit of warming is compensated by weather processes, thereby limiting the greenhouse effect and having a negative feedback. As Michael Duffy surmised, "The climate is actually, in one way anyway, more robust than was assumed in the climate models?" And thus, all the models need to be overhauled to include this new finding. Pretty amazing stuff, as new technology further deepens our understanding of nature and move science one more step away from the Neanderthal rationale of the IPCC and to a certain extent the AGW religion. Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface-meltwater-induced acceleration of basal sliding This simulation predicts that the melting ice sheets will contribute to sea levels a rise of 18 cm by 2100. Though if you look at Figure 1 in the paper (download the PDF file for a copy) they used scenario WRE1000 for their simulation. Which probably denotes Cubasch et al.'s worst case scenario of run-off CO2 emissions and a +3 degrees Celsius change of global mean temperature by 2100. Also, note that these scenarios show an exponential characteristic as time advances. Though, interesting for me at least, not before a semi-linear delta T is seen until about 2020-2030. Thus another nail or two against the AGW coffin is nailed in. No rise of five meters per century as preached by the IPCC, or even 10 meters by that NASA reject Jim E. Hansen (link 1, link 2). Nothing catastrophic at all. Anyway, found this interesting 1984 reference for Al Gore. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3XcIh_n6k0 Global Warming? - Stereo - 2009-05-15 Petraj Wrote:Sun Oddly Quiet -- Hints at Next "Little Ice Age"?Unfortunately the sun's variation with sunspots does not create a massive change in temperature compared to other changes by humans. Even if they're correlated over the last decade, historically the variation attributable to them is small. Quote:Ocean Cooling to Briefly Halt Global Warming, Researchers SayThis doesn't make sense, El Nina just shifts the temperatures (hotter Australia = cooler North America) it is entirely within the system and doesn't cause global temperature change. Quote:Back to the Jennifer Marohasy interview. NASA's Aqua satellite data disprove the current model that as more CO2 is pumped to the atmosphere and a warming ensues, more water vapor is created and a positive feedback happens. Instead, a little bit of warming is compensated by weather processes, thereby limiting the greenhouse effect and having a negative feedback. As Michael Duffy surmised, "The climate is actually, in one way anyway, more robust than was assumed in the climate models?" And thus, all the models need to be overhauled to include this new finding. Pretty amazing stuff, as new technology further deepens our understanding of nature and move science one more step away from the Neanderthal rationale of the IPCC and to a certain extent the AGW religion.It doesn't disprove the model, it just shows that we haven't reached a critical point with water vapour yet. As you said, a little bit of warming is compensated by increased precip. and cloud cover, cooling it again. I'm pretty sure that was already known. Quote:Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface-meltwater-induced acceleration of basal sliding They pretty much guessed at the best parameters by trying until it fit the best. I don't know how seriously I can take that model, even if it makes extreme assumptions (the "worst case CO2") they just found something that fits the previous 3 years data and used it to project the next 300 years. That doesn't speak to me of accuracy. I haven't really looked at how the IPCC's numbers are determined but I'm reasonably sure they do a more thorough job of looking at possibilities, they're not just trying to push an agenda. Global Warming? - xLeviathan - 2009-05-15 Stereo Wrote:This doesn't make sense, El Nina just shifts the temperatures (hotter Australia = cooler North America) it is entirely within the system and doesn't cause global temperature change. "El Niño/La Niña is a naturally occurring 2-7 year cycle of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe" http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/elnino/elnino.html Since when is temperature not part of the weather and/or climate? :f6: Anywho, Stereo's right. The possibility of it having anything to do with "global warming" is little to none. Doesn't the Snowball Earth theory support high CO2 levels before an ice age? I don't see what there's to argue about sometimes. Why should there be? I figured there was never a debate over whether or not the Earth is getting hotting, but how fast it's occurring. We should stop debating over whether or not the phenomenon exists, and even if it doesn't (<.<), we should start making more policies to limit emissions in any case. Greenhouse gases don't just reflect heat back at the Earth, the nitrous oxides and sulfur dioxides we love to put out in our air mix with the naturally occuring CO2, O2, and H20 and cause acid rain, and that's reason enough.
Global Warming? - Stereo - 2009-05-15 I guess that wasn't clear, local temperatures change (since a major ocean current shifts, warm water goes to different places) but the overall heat of the system is no different. Global Warming? - xLeviathan - 2009-05-15 Stereo Wrote:I guess that wasn't clear, local temperatures change (since a major ocean current shifts, warm water goes to different places) but the overall heat of the system is no different. This is correct. .Has anyone seen the Zeitgeist Addendum movie? No, I'm not a conspiracy theory nut, but they do have some good suggestions/statistics about alternate sources of energy. Especially geothermal energy. Now to master Nuclear Fusion... Let's put two non-volatile molecules together and form a...non-volatile compound that makes your voice cute and squeaky and can be used to fill balloons. Amazing. Oh, and it could power the Earth for thousands of years and we could leave the atmosphere alone and then we'd see if the process of GW was natural or not. |