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+--- Thread: Monty Hall problem - SP edition (/showthread.php?tid=9227)
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - sicnarf - 2009-03-12
Since we're having probability fun...
Imagine you are on a game show. You are offered three doors. Behind two of these three doors are pineapples. Behind the third door is a chinchilla. You don't like pineapples. Pineapple pineapples. You want one of those damn cute chinchillas.
You are allowed to select one of the three doors. Upon selecting a door, your pimento host (me) opens a door that you did not select, revealing a pineapple. You now have a selection of two doors; the one you chose and the third one that's unchosen and unrevealed. You can either stay with your choice or you can switch doors.
What action will lead to a higher chance of getting the cute chincilla?
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Holypie - 2009-03-12
switch. =)
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Pistolero831 - 2009-03-12
Always switch. If you choose a pineapple and switch, you get a chinchilla, if you choose a chinchilla and switch, you get a pineapple. Since there's a 2/3 chance you choose a pineapple in the beginning, odds are better if you switch.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Derimed - 2009-03-12
My magical
will enable me to see which door the 
is hiding behind. 
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Russt - 2009-03-14
Depends. If I chose a pineapple door, switch. If I chose the chinchilla door, stay. ^^
You never mentioned anything about random chance. And in the case that the chinchilla is behind the door I chose, it's obviously better not to switch.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Nikkey - 2009-03-15
Russt Wrote:You never mentioned anything about random chance. And in the case that the chinchilla is behind the door I chose, it's obviously better not to switch.
But what's the probability that it is?
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Russt - 2009-03-15
Devil's Sunrise Wrote:But what's the probability that it is?1/3. But that doesn't mean that if I hit that 1/3 chance on my original pick, it's still a 'good' choice to switch from an omniscient point of view.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Dusk - 2009-03-15
Stay. pineapple probability, I'm 100% sure I got it right on my first guess
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - JoeTang - 2009-03-15
This question was more fun when certain death was two of the three choices.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - mrcowcow - 2009-03-15
Wait... the way I see it, there are three doors. You pick a door. The host opens one that you didn't pick, which contains a pineapple. There are two pineapples total and one chinchilla. Therefore, one pineapple is eliminated; there is one pineapple behind a door and one chinchilla behind a door, with two doors still to open. So the way I see it, you now have a 50/50 chance of getting a chinchilla.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - KajitiSouls - 2009-03-16
Switch your door.
You have a 1/3 chance of getting the Chinchilla. Not good odds. Since the host opens a door revealing a pineapple, you are down to choosing two doors. Now since your door has a 1/3 chance of getting the Chinchilla, and the host already eliminated one door, it stands that the only door left has the Chinchilla 2/3 of the time, since you know the door you picked has the Chinchilla only 1/3 of the time.
This problem has sparked a huge raging debate amongst probability mathe-wannabes.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Hazzy - 2009-03-16
Look at Fiel in the audience, and see what door he's staring at and sweating over.
Since he has chin-radar, fallow his gaze.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Cancambo - 2009-03-16
I'd say it truly doesn't matter what you do. It all ends up being a mind game.
"Is he trying to get me to switch doors so I don't get the
?"or
"Is he trying to get me to stay so I don't get the
."In a case like this, I'd just do. Don't think, just do. He is trying to get you to rip your own mind apart.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Heidi - 2009-03-16
Wow, doesn't this just make SP seem so smart?
I'd say most of the people that know the answer have seen this before
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Alloy - 2009-03-16
You (pimento host) could ALWAYS open a pineapple door. Even if it was our correct guess or not.
THEREFORE, I vote for it doesn't matter, you are playing with us. >
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Russt - 2009-03-16
Heidi Wrote:Wow, doesn't this just make SP seem so smart?I know I have. 's why I didn't vote.
I'd say most of the people that know the answer have seen this before
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Cancambo - 2009-03-16
KajitiSouls Wrote:Switch your door.
You have a 1/3 chance of getting the Chinchilla. Not good odds. Since the host opens a door revealing a pineapple, you are down to choosing two doors. Now since your door has a 1/3 chance of getting the Chinchilla, and the host already eliminated one door, it stands that the only door left has the Chinchilla 2/3 of the time, since you know the door you picked has the Chinchilla only 1/3 of the time.
This problem has sparked a huge raging debate amongst probability mathe-wannabes.
I don't see why it doesn't split into a 50-50 chance.
? Also,
and now, since a door was eliminated, that your door has a 2/3 chance of not having a . The numbers can be manipulated too much; just choose a door.EDIT: Another thing I can point out, you can say the other door had 1/3 chance of not getting the chinchilla. Therefore, once a door is eliminated, using that logic, you could effectivly say the other door now has a 2/3 chance of not getting the
. The numbers can go anyway you want them to, as I see it.You could make some other possible scenarios, both for or against you getting the
.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Kaasoljoyyx - 2009-03-16
TehMatt Wrote:I don't see why it doesn't split into a 50-50 chance.Couldn't you say either door now has a 2/3 chance of having aYou could possibly say that you knew your door had a 1/3 chance of not having a
EDIT: Another thing I can point out, you can say the other door had 1/3 chance of not getting the chinchilla. Therefore, once a door is eliminated, using that logic, you could effectivly say the other door now has a 2/3 chance of not getting the
Door A: Good
Door B: Bad
Door C: Bad
You choose 1 door and can either switch or stay. That yields 6 possibilities
Choose A + Stay = Win
Choose A + Switch = Lose
Choose B + Stay = Lose
Choose B + Switch = Win
Choose C + Stay = Lose
Choose C + Switch = Win
As you can see, switching gives you 2/3 winning while staying gives you 1/3
Also can be thought of variable change.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Cancambo - 2009-03-16
Kaasoljoyyx Wrote:Door A: Good
Door B: Bad
Door C: Bad
You choose 1 door and can either switch or stay. That yields 6 possibilities
Choose A + Stay = Win
Choose A + Switch = Lose
Choose B + Stay = Lose
Choose B + Switch = Win
Choose C + Stay = Lose
Choose C + Switch = Win
As you can see, switching gives you 2/3 winning while staying gives you 1/3
Also can be thought of variable change.
But, now a door is gone. Let's say you chose door A and he opened up door C. You still have no idea what is behind which door. He you have two choices. Stay or switch, 50-50 chance of selecting it right. EDIT: Once one door was opened a new factor was introduced completely changing the problem.
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - Holypie - 2009-03-16
Quantact Wrote:My magical
i like this one. we are using SP memes for this after all. and make the pinaeapples explode like in bloons TD 3. then people will be scrambling for the goggles. >=)